Pre-registered strategies that buy what public disclosures reveal, entered only after each record became public, with real adjusted prices, trading costs and SPY over the same dates. Every simulated trade links to the filing that triggered it.
Buy every exchange-listed stock a House member (or spouse/dependent) reports purchasing, at the close of the first trading day after the report is published by the House Clerk. Sell 60 trading days later.
60 trading days (about one quarter) and costs of 5 bps commission plus 10 bps slippage per side were fixed before the first run. Only primary-source House reports are used; Senate rows from a mirror are excluded as unverified.
| Period | Trades | Win rate | Mean trade | Mean excess | 95% CI of excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-sample (first 60%) | 276 | 54% | +6.4% |
Buy every stock where an officer, director or 10% owner reports an open-market purchase (Form 4 code P) of at least $100,000 outside a Rule 10b5-1 plan, at the close of the first trading day after the Form 4 is filed. Sell 60 trading days later.
The $100,000 threshold and 60-day hold follow common practice in published insider-purchase studies and were fixed before the first run. Same cost assumptions as every other strategy.
| −3.2% |
| −6.4% to +0.5% |
| Out-of-sample (last 40%) | 185 | 49% | +0.8% | −1.5% | −3.8% to +1.1% |
No parameter was tuned on either period. The split shows whether the result holds up over time; when the two periods disagree, neither is proof. An interval that crosses zero means the result is not distinguishable from SPY.
| Period | Trades | Win rate | Mean trade | Mean excess | 95% CI of excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-sample (first 60%) | 118 | 47% | +2.5% | −2.1% | −7.2% to +2.8% |
| Out-of-sample (last 40%) | 80 | 61% | +4.3% | −0.0% | −6.7% to +6.3% |
No parameter was tuned on either period. The split shows whether the result holds up over time; when the two periods disagree, neither is proof. An interval that crosses zero means the result is not distinguishable from SPY.