INSIDER Alpha · run #17

Trump: buy the sector named in each executive action

For every executive order or proclamation signed by President Trump since January 20, 2025 whose title names a sector in INSIDER's fixed keyword table, buy that sector's ETF at the close of the first trading day after the document is published in the Federal Register. Sell 20 trading days later.

All strategies

Equity versus SPY

Experimental signal

+51.2%−18.6%

Jan 30, 2025—— Strategy +35.7%—— SPY +28.5%Sep 30, 2026

Total return: +35.7%; Jan 30, 2025 – Sep 30, 2026
Annualized: +20.1%; over 20 months
SPY, same dates: +28.5%; buy and hold
Excess vs SPY: +7.2%
Max drawdown: −18.6%
Closed trades: 45; 3 still open
Win rate: 62%
Profit factor: 2.21; gross gains ÷ gross losses
Mean trade: +2.6%; 95% CI +0.1% to +4.8%
Mean excess per trade: +0.4%; 95% CI −1.5% to +2.4%

Entry: Close of the first trading day after publication
Exit: Close 20 trading days after entry
Costs: 5 bps commission + 10 bps slippage, each side
Prices: Yahoo Finance chart API · Splits and dividends (adjusted close)
Benchmark: SPY, same entry and exit dates
Signals: 74 records published Jan 29, 2025 – Nov 2, 2026
Price coverage: 13 of 13 tickers
Run: #17 · Nov 5, 07:42 UTC · strategy v1 · engine v1.0.0 · params e48b7d7eed23a151
Not traded: 26 — the ticker was already held from an earlier signal

Simulated trades · 48

Signal	Public	Entry	Exit	Net	SPY	Excess	Evidence
BOTZProclamation: Adjusting Imports of Robotics, Industrial Machinery, and Their Parts and Components Into the United States → Robotics & automation	Nov 2, 2026	Nov 3, 2026$32.32	open	+1.2%	+1.7%	−0.4%	Filing Evidence
CARZProclamation: Further Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed To Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehicles → Automobiles	Oct 30, 2026	Nov 2, 2026$93.45	open	+0.9%	+2.0%	−1.1%	Filing

Backtest run

Data sources

SEC FORM 44h ago

HOUSE PTR4h ago

SEC 13F4h ago

ROBINHOOD CHAIN4h ago