INSIDER Alpha · run #18Hegseth: buy defense after each defense-related presidential action
For every executive order or proclamation since Pete Hegseth became Secretary of Defense (January 25, 2025) whose title names defense, the military, missiles, shipbuilding, drones or aircraft, buy the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) at the close of the first trading day after Federal Register publication. Sell 20 trading days later.
- Total return
- +15.8%
- Feb 4, 2025 – Sep 18, 2026
- Annualized
- +9.5%
- over 19 months
- SPY, same dates
- +29.1%
- buy and hold
- Excess vs SPY
- −13.2%
- Max drawdown
- −15.5%
- Closed trades
- 9
- 0 still open
- Win rate
- 56%
- Profit factor
- 1.87
- gross gains ÷ gross losses
- Mean trade
- +1.9%
- 95% CI −2.7% to +6.3%
- Mean excess per trade
- −0.6%
- 95% CI −3.9% to +2.0%
- Entry
- Close of the first trading day after publication
- Exit
- Close 20 trading days after entry
- Costs
- 5 bps commission + 10 bps slippage, each side
- Prices
- Yahoo Finance chart API · Splits and dividends (adjusted close)
- Benchmark
- SPY, same entry and exit dates
- Signals
- 15 records published Feb 3, 2025 – Sep 11, 2026
- Price coverage
- 1 of 1 tickers
- Run
- #18 · Nov 5, 07:42 UTC · strategy v1 · engine v1.0.0 · params 242a36be02f80d1a
- Not traded
- 6 — the ticker was already held from an earlier signal